Mondelez forecasts muted 2026 as price hikes push consumers away

By Neil J Kanatt

Feb 3 (Reuters) – Cadbury-parent Mondelez International expects a subdued year ahead, as price increases are turning away cost‑conscious shoppers who are already wary of rising living costs and ‍macroeconomic uncertainty.

Shares of the Chicago-based company were down about 4% after the bell on Tuesday.

Mondelez said consumers, particularly in the United States, are tightening spending and shifting toward value channels, pressuring volumes after multiple rounds of price hikes to offset sharply higher cocoa costs.

Cocoa prices surged 160% in 2024 and have ‌since dropped amid a global surplus, but the ‌company said it has already sourced cocoa for 2026 at rates above current market levels, holding the company back from immediate price cuts on products.

CEO Dirk Van de Put said U.S. consumer confidence “remains weak”, with shoppers trading down ​and higher‑income buyers gravitating toward “better‑for‑you” snacks, especially those with protein. Europe also remains fragile, he said, though chocolate volumes there are expected ‍to stabilize following last year’s pricing wave.

The ​company expects its 2026 organic net revenue growth to ​be between flat and 2%, below analysts’ expectations of a 3.84% rise, ‍while profit is expected to grow in the range of flat to 5% on an adjusted basis, compared with expectations of a 8.3% rise, according to data compiled by LSEG.

“Volumes for Mondelez decelerated sequentially as pricing accelerated – demonstrative of both a strained consumer and the need ‍to offset input cost inflation, especially cocoa,” said Michael Gunther, VP of Research and Market Intelligence at ConsumerEdge.

Fourth‑quarter volumes dropped 4.8 percentage points. Meanwhile, pricing ‍rose 9 points, contributing ‍to a 9.3% increase in revenue to $10.50 billion, ​above analysts’ expectations of $10.31 billion. Adjusted profit of 72 ​cents ⁠per share also beat estimates by 2 cents.

Mondelez said ‌it is adjusting prices in some markets and expects that to help improve volumes.

Rival PepsiCo, which also topped quarterly results on Tuesday, said it will cut prices on core snack brands such as Lay’s and Doritos by up to 15% following consumer pushback.

(Reporting by Neil J Kanatt in Bengaluru; Editing by ⁠Krishna Chandra Eluri)