By Thomas Escritt
BERLIN (Reuters) – Friedrich Merz’s failure on Tuesday to win the required absolute majority in parliament to be elected chancellor of Germany leaves him weakened but not yet defeated.
Here is the procedure for electing a successor to the outgoing chancellor, Olaf Scholz:
FIRST ATTEMPT
Article 63 of Germany’s constitution, the Basic Law, says that, to become chancellor, a candidate in the first round needs to win an absolute majority in the Bundestag or lower house. Merz won 310 votes, short of the 316 that constitute an absolute majority in the chamber of 630 members.
Together, his conservative CDU/CSU bloc and the Social Democrats, his intended coalition partners, should command 328 votes. In other words, 18 members of his intended governing majority failed to vote for him.
Before Merz, no chancellor in postwar history had failed to secure parliament’s backing at the first attempt.
NEXT VOTE
Parliament now has 14 days to elect a chancellor under the same system.
The newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung reported that there would not be another attempt on Tuesday, and several legislators confirmed that this was also their understanding.
PARLIAMENTARY ARITHMETIC
In principle, alternative candidates could be proposed at any stage, but parliamentary arithmetic means that the conservatives and the SPD are the only two-way bloc that can command a majority without the far-right Alternative for Germany.
Proposing any other candidate would likely require extensive renegotiation, possibly involving a third party such as the Greens, who would demand concessions of their own. Sharing power with the AfD is a taboo for the established parties.
Merz, who allowed an anti-immigration resolution to pass with the AfD’s backing before the election, is unlikely to want to start his term relying for support on a party that he has pledged to shun and that was officially designated “right-wing extremist” this week.
IF ALL ELSE FAILS
If, after 14 days, Merz has still failed to win an outright majority, he can be elected in a new round by a simple majority of those voting.
At this stage, Merz would be certain to win if, after a bruising series of lost votes, he managed to hang on to the backing he had at the outset.
Until the impasse is resolved, Scholz remains in office as acting chancellor.
(Reporting by Thomas Escritt; Editing by Kevin Liffey)
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