A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Kevin Buckland
Mega-tech earnings remain in the spotlight on Thursday, particularly after the Bank of Japan’s as-expected decision to hold policy steady failed to give the market any new trading cues.
Apple and Amazon, two of the so-called “Magnificent 7”, will report results to Wall Street on Thursday, picking up from Meta and Microsoft on Wednesday, and Alphabet the day before that.
That’ll leave AI darling Nvidia as the only one left to report, although its financial statement is still three weeks away.
Tesla got things rolling on a high note last week, exciting investors with bold EV sales forecasts.
Alphabet kept the momentum going by beating profit and revenue estimates on strength in YouTube ad sales and its cloud business.
But the mood soured overnight, after Microsoft and Meta flagged ballooning costs from AI investments, making investors antsy about what Amazon will say on the topic.
Alphabet had also noted on Tuesday that AI expenditures would stay high, but at that point in the week it didn’t appear to be a trend.
AI fever has driven Wall Street – and by extension many global equity markets – to all-time peaks this year, so any signs of weakness in the rally’s foundation are sure to shake markets.
Witness AMD’s 10% plunge overnight on disappointing AI chip sales, dragging down shares of no less than Nvidia, among other chipmaking peers.
In Europe, bank earnings still hold centre stage, with BNP Paribas, SocGen and ING among the lenders on deck today.
Santander’s international banking conference in Madrid hosts such speakers as Bank of Spain Governor Jose Luis Escriva and Dutch central bank governor Klaas Knot.
Traders are looking for hints the ECB will accelerate rate cuts, with inflation coming down faster than officials originally anticipated.
Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said on Wednesday that “price stability is not far off”, the same day that French central bank chief Francois Villeroy de Galhau said victory against excessive inflation was “in sight”.
Euro-area and country-specific inflation figures are due later in the day, along with German retail sales.
The U.S. Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the PCE deflator, is also due today, ahead of potentially pivotal monthly payrolls figures on Friday.
The next Fed decision is one week away, and robust macroeconomic indicators recently have pointed to a patient approach to rate cuts – even if data this week has sent some mixed signals.
The Bank of Japan again highlighted risks from the U.S. economy in abstaining from raising rates today, although policymakers expressed confidence they could continue to normalise policy in due course.
One of the risks certain to be on their radar is the U.S. election next Tuesday, which opinion polls still put as too close to call despite a shift in bets towards a Donald Trump win in financial markets and on some prediction websites.
The biggest news for many Japanese today probably came from New York rather than Tokyo, with Shohei Ohtani helping the LA Dodgers to a World Series victory in his first season with the team. $700 million well spent, indeed.
Key developments that could influence markets on Thursday:
-Apple, Amazon report earnings in U.S.
-BNP Paribas, SocGen, ING report earnings in Europe
-Euro area HICP (Oct), German retail sales (Sep)
-U.S. PCE deflator (Sep)
(By Kevin Buckland; Editing by Edmund Klamann)
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