(Reuters) – San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly on Thursday said she believes it will take raising interest rates to a 4.5%-5% range and holding them there through the end of 2023 to get inflation under control, but said she could support doing more if inflation doesn’t fall as expected.
“I’m quite comfortable” with policymaker projections published last week that show the majority see the Fed’s policy rate rising to 4%-4.5% this year and 4.5%-5% next year, Daly told reporters after an event at Boise State University. “It’s going to take restrictive policy for a duration of time to get clear and convincing evidence that inflation is getting back to 2% — so from my mind, that’s at least through next year.”
The Fed last week delivered a third-straight 75-basis-point interest rate increase, lifting its policy rate target range to 3%-3.25%. Asked if global market turmoil could move her to support pausing rate hikes, Daly said global financial markets are just one part of the equation.
“I’m really looking at have financial conditions tightened more than the funds rate has tightened, and more than they were projected to be tight, because now people are realizing there’s global tightening everywhere and financial markets are really responding. If that’s the case, then, you know, slowing the pace of increases but still heading for the right terminal rate would be appropriate,” Daly said.
“But if inflation continues to print very high and we get no easing of inflation and only modest easing of labor markets, then that’s basically an economy that’s still got a lot of momentum, and inflation is still too high — we’re going to have to keep moving up because we are going to understand that the terminal rate isn’t as close as it would be
(Reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Leslie Adler)
