(Reuters) -U.S. economic activity was little changed in recent weeks, though employment was weaker in about half of the Federal Reserve’s 12 districts and consumer spending declined, the U.S. central bank said on Wednesday, likely reinforcing concerns about the job market as the next interest rate decision nears.
“Economic activity was little changed since the previous report, according to most of the 12 Federal Reserve districts, though two districts noted a modest decline and one reported modest growth,” the Fed said in its latest “Beige Book” report, a compendium of survey results, interviews, and other qualitative data from its 12 regional banks.
“Employment declined slightly over the current period with around half of districts noting weaker labor demand,” the report said. “Despite an uptick in layoff announcements, more districts reported contacts limiting headcounts using hiring freezes, replacement-only hiring, and attrition than through layoffs.”
Published two weeks ahead of each Fed policy meeting, the report is meant to help central bankers assess the economy’s health with more timely, and often more colorful, insight than is available in the official statistics.
With the data vacuum left by the record 43-day government shutdown that extended into mid-November, the Beige Book should get more weight than usual in the deliberations among deeply divided Fed policymakers, following their decision last month to cut rates by a quarter of a percentage point for the second consecutive meeting. The policy rate now stands in the 3.75%-4.00% range.
The data flow has resumed since the shutdown ended, but most of the reports issued over the past two weeks have been significantly dated, covering the period just before the shutdown began on October 1, and have offered almost no fresh insight into the health of the economy.
MARKETS BETTING ON ANOTHER RATE CUT NEXT MONTH
One of the most current indicators, however, suggests the job market remains in a stable, gradually softening state.
New claims for unemployment benefits fell last week to the lowest level since April, though the ranks of those remaining on benefits beyond a first week of assistance has plateaued near the highest level in about four years. Together, the figures point to no notable increase in layoffs despite a wave of job-cut announcements from big employers like Amazon.com, though those out of work are finding it harder to land a new job.
Interest rate futures markets are reflecting a high probability of another quarter-percentage-point reduction in borrowing costs at the Fed’s December 9-10 meeting.
Until last week it had been seen as a coin-toss decision amid deep divisions among Fed officials about whether more easing is needed to protect the job market or is too risky in light of inflation that remains above the central bank’s 2% target. But the probability shifted sharply in favor of a rate cut after New York Fed President John Williams last week said he saw room to lower rates “in the near term.”
Whatever the decision at next month’s meeting, it is likely to be made over the objections of several policymakers, and will come alongside a fresh batch of forecasts from Fed officials that will show how inclined they are to bring rates down further next year.
GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN HAMPERED DEMAND IN SEVERAL DISTRICTS
The report offered little decisive evidence to persuade members of either Fed camp to change their positions.
The job market softness reflected in the latest report was somewhat more pronounced than in the previous report in October, but did not represent a significant downshift. Commentary from Fed business contacts showed input price pressures continued to rise, especially for those affected by President Donald Trump’s tariffs, though the pass-through to consumers was mixed.
Consumer spending in several districts was hampered by the government shutdown, which hurt demand from lower-income households that depend on aid programs such as the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) that were interrupted by the closure.
“Contacts reported that the government shutdown placed additional pressure on retail and food service firms, with many noting a visible slowdown in foot traffic,” the Kansas City Fed reported.
The report also buttressed indications that spending was being carried by more affluent households, while lower-income consumers were feeling pinched.
“A New Jersey-based cafe noted that sales had been particularly weak, with the average order size shrinking, and a small restaurant chain reported declining sales,” the New York Fed said. “Still, a department store reported that sales have remained strong, especially for bedding as well as fine jewelry and watches.”
Trump’s immigration crackdown also is having an effect on demand and hiring in some locations.
“A food distributor noted a decrease in Hispanic shoppers due to immigration enforcement,” the Dallas Fed said.
And the San Francisco Fed noted: “One contact in agriculture highlighted increased difficulties in hiring workers due to immigration visa revocations.”
(Reporting by Dan Burns; Editing by Paul Simao)
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